Drivers and forecasts

Economic growth is the main driving force behind the demand for oil. The energy needed per capita is constantly increasing despite the increase in efficiency brought about by technological progress. This is because growth promotes increased demand for mobility and population growth. The world’s energy needs are met to a great degree by fossil fuels, oil being the dominant one. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that world energy consumption will grow by 56 percent between 2010 and 2040. Much of the growth in energy consumption occurs in countries outside of the OECD, where demand is driven by strong, long-term economic growth. Renewable energy and nuclear power are the fastest growing energy sources, but according to EIA, fossil fuels will continue to supply almost 80 percent of world energy use through 2040. According to EIA’s outlook, natural gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel and it is expected that its use will increase by an average of 1.7 percent per year.

1 EIA International Energy Outlook, 2013

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